Price analysis on BTC (long-term perspective)

By: Daniel Cheriyan

Considering the price fluctuations of BTC in long-term chart analysis, we can see that the trend is still upwards. Considering where the price started and where it is trading now, it is way up in positive territory. BTC has experienced 85 percentage falls from its highs thus it is a typical scenario for those who are trading this instrument from some years.

Fig 1

Looking into the long-term chart (see Fig 1) we can see that movement towards both directions shows a trend. It took around 150 weeks to break above one high (1200 USD) and in that cycle, the accumulation period was about 36 weeks. After the accumulation period, it rallied for almost one year. Now the price is correcting itself from the hype which was created during the rally. As of now, it looks like it may take more time to start a rally 4-5 months (no one knows this, I am trying to point out from previous price action). But those who are filling up their pockets during this consolidation will be rewarded while the price shakes of the weak hands and move upwards. The clouds are moving slowly away from the regulatory clarity side for crypto as more countries are bringing in progressive stand towards the state of the art technology. The line drawn in Fig 1 is just the illustration of authors view on how the price may behave (it is not sure, it may not happen) in the future considering what has happened previously in the same scenarios. Currently, the price is supported at the 200-day moving average (which is positive, as the same is considered in the traditional markets as well) it may bounce and retest the same area prior to the start of a new Bull Run.

 Fig 2

In Fig 2 the author is trying to look into the price movement to understand the bear cycle by splitting into a downtrend and a consolidation phase. Which also shows something similar to what we stated previously the 200-day moving avg (green line) is becoming support, and it may flirt with that for 2-3 months while the big pocket investors accumulate slowly. During the uptrend of 2016 which lasted till the start of 2018, it took around 580 days (see Fig 3) to grind up from about 350 USD to an astonishing 20,000 USD. Considering such a push upwards the current correction is healthy (as we see -85% correction often on the crypto land). If it happens to capitulate for one more time, it can be considered as a sale price for BTC for near future.

Fig 3 

Fig 4 shows the market cycles (the behavior of the financial market over time) speculative trading can bring profits....... but just be informed before you make any trading decision..... Time is money (patience can turn that into a virtue).

Fig 4 

NOTE

This is not investment advice. The information is the perspective of the author itself. Crypto trading is having a higher risk than other trading instruments.